Power Rank Value

So on last night’s podcast, I lied and said that power rankings have a lot of predictive value. This was based on some analysis I had done earlier in the season while looking at a smallish sample of data from last year. I checked out this season’s data this morning, and if you picked your matchups based on the higher ranked team, you were only right 50% of the time. That’s pretty terrible, the same as flipping a coin. Taking it further I decided to look at games were one team was ranked at least 6 spots higher than the other team and was only right 40% of the time. This season has had a ton of upsets so far, but that’s what makes it so great. Right?

Here’s an update on how each team has progressed in the power rankings:

week10ranks

And here’s each team’s power rank, playoff rank, and points rank:

Playoff Rank Power Rank Points Rank
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers 1 2 2
Springfield Atoms 2 1 1
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls 3 3 3
Shelbyville Shittysauruses 4 4 8
The Fluffy Bunnies 5 7 7
Butthole Surfers 6 5 5
Philadelphia Shenanihads 7 8 9
Team GoInsanelyFast 8 6 4
Columbia Songbirds 9 9 6
Robot Unicorn 10 10 11
Giant Octopus 11 11 12
Randy Savage Macho Men 12 12 10

 

Podcast 2016 – Week 10

Hope you guys liked having Brett on because he’s back with a vengeance to tell you how his team is somehow still in the running. Besides that we talk about potential playoff teams, and what emoji’s are who’s dick.

Week 10 Stats

AveragePoints RankLast 3SoSRoS SoSPWR RankWin% v Field
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers116.032123.3335263.64%
Springfield Atoms122.481138.03113169.09%
Butthole Surfers109.665132.7365850.00%
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls115.133115.5772354.55%
The Fluffy Bunnies105.027100.5127644.55%
Randy Savage Macho Men102.281095.27211243.64%
Giant Octopus99.61295.03481033.64%
Philadelphia Shenanihads103.339111.83511743.64%
Robot Unicorn101.591176.1141142.73%
Shelbyville Shittysauruses104.098110.4799541.82%
Columbia Songbirds108.256108.8389957.27%
Team GoInsanelyFast113.514111.131011454.55%
  • Four teams scored between 126.1 and 127.6 this week, making Shittysaurses’ well above average score (126.1) only 6th highest of the week.
  • Boomers took their first loss since week 5, but still sit on top of their division and are only behind Atoms in points and wins against the field.
  • Atoms move into the #1 PWR spot with their highest score of the season, and the second highest scored scored by any team. They’re averaging 138.03 over the last three weeks, with a 84.85% against the field over the same period.
  • Butthole Surfers have gone from 12th to 5th in points over the last 2 weeks and are ranked 2nd in points over that time.
  • Pumaskulls got the win in one of their last easy matchups of the season. Next they’ll play Atoms (#1), Robo (#11), Surfers (#5), and Boomers (#4).
  • Bunnies posted their third score under 80 points of the season; only one other team has done it more than once (Robo).
  • Macho Men has scored below the average for 5 straight weeks, and has only one win over that time. They’ll now face 3 top-5 teams before facing Robo (#11) in a meaningless week 14 matchup.
  • Octo posted the second lowest winning score of the season (84.7) over the Bunnies. Coincidentally, the only winning score lower than Octo’s was Bunnies week one, 81 point win.
  • Shenanihads posted their highest score since week 3 and now sit only one game out of first place. They have the easiest schedule of their division, their upcoming opponents all in the bottom half of points scored.
  • Robot Unicorn posted his worst score of the season and now has scored below 100 points in 6 out of the last 8 weeks. Their average for the last three games is a meager 76.1.
  • Shittysauruses had their second highest scoring game of the season and now sit uncontested as division leader, despite a 41.82% versus the field.
  • Songbirds only had the 8th highest score for the week, but still came out with a win. Their versus the field score is 4th highest over the last 3 weeks, and they still have a decent shot at making playoffs.
  • TGIF had a nice bounce back game but still took a heartbreaking loss. This loss was the second highest scoring loss of the season. They’re now sitting 2 games out of first and 3 games out of a wildcard. Thankfully, PWR thinks they have the easiest schedule going forward.

For definitions and calculations of all stats check out Bo Knows Stats. Numbers in parenthesis after a team name indicate the Team Score Rank (how well the team scores points).

 

Playoff Update

With only five weeks left in the season and nothing but divisional games left, here’s how the playoff odds look:

TeamPlayoff MachineFantasy ProsAverageChange
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers97.5%97%97.25%+21.14% â–˛
Springfield Atoms88.41%84%86.21%+26.50% â–˛
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls80.16%88%84.08%+3.20% â–˛
The Fluffy Bunnies45.02%40%42.51%+9.34% â–˛
Team GoInsanelyFast30.77%19%24.89%-33.44% â–Ľ
Shelbyville Shittysauruses19.55%29%24.28%-4.33% â–Ľ
Columbia Songbirds19.06%18%18.53%-2.01% â–Ľ
Butthole Surfers9.63%13%11.32%+5.29% â–˛
Philadelphia Shenanihads5.18%5%5.09%-1.71% â–Ľ
Robot Unicorn4.10%6%5.05%-18.20% â–Ľ
Randy Savage Macho Men0.19%1%0.60%-2.85% â–Ľ
Giant Octopus0.43%0%0.22%-2.46% â–Ľ

Week 9 Stats

AveragePoints RankLast 3SoSRoS SoSPWR RankWin% v Field
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers114.863118.144463.64%
Springfield Atoms118.581116.63116265.66%
Butthole Surfers106.467119.8363945.45%
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls115.612126.5335555.56%
The Fluffy Bunnies107.966113.971211348.48%
Randy Savage Macho Men104.179102.63511245.45%
Giant Octopus101.2611103.13271035.35%
Philadelphia Shenanihads100.631291.6398839.39%
Robot Unicorn105.828103.93121147.47%
Shelbyville Shittysauruses101.641094.8779640.40%
Columbia Songbirds109.125107.3810759.60%
Team GoInsanelyFast1124110.81012152.53%
  • Boomers have posted an above average score for the 7 out of the 9 weeks of the season, each accompanied with a win. They’re boasting a staggering 77% win percentage against the field over the last 4 weeks, 14 points higher than the next.
  • Atoms retain their lead in points and slide into 2nd in PWR. Atoms have lost every 3rd game this season, and after 2 wins, face a cold Robo (#8) team.
  • Butthole Surfers doubled their points from the week before, and posted the 4th highest score in Bo Knows history. With this points explosion, they’ve jumped from 12th to 7th in point totals for the season and 2nd in points over the last 3 weeks.
  • Pumaskulls leads the league in points over the last 3 weeks and is the only team to score more than 140 points three times.
  • Bunnies took a loss this week, but while sitting middle of the pack for points and wins against the field, they face Octopus (#12), Shenanihads (#11), Shittysauruses (#10), and Songbirds (#7) before wrapping up the season.
  • Macho Men put an end to their 5 game losing streak, but has the 3rd lowest point average for the last 3 weeks. They’ll face a murderer’s row of Robo’s Rainbows in Pumaskulls (#2), Boomers (#4), Surfers (#5), and Atoms (#1) while trying to fight back for a wildcard spot.
  • Octo’s max score of 112.7 is lower than 3 teams average. They only see pain and suffering in the future as the Toilet Bowl looms near. First agenda item for next season should be replacing this team.
  • Shenanihads are also feeling the shame spiral as they have dropped to the lowest average for the season and boast a 22% vs the field for the last 4 weeks. With an easy division and only one game out, they still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
  • Robot Unicorn eked out a win this week despite the below average score. It’ll be tough for them to nab a wild card spot with all the top teams in their division, but they’re far from eliminated.
  • Shittysauruses crashed back down with the weeks lowest point total after posting the second highest the week before. Posting a 40% against the field for the season and averaging only 97 points since week 4, Shittysauruses will need to get their Shit together to get into the playoffs.
  • Songbirds are quietly having a bounceback from their week 5 embarrassment, posting the 3rd highest wins against the field for the season, although only one real win in the last 5 weeks to show for it. They’re still in the running for the Rogue Guardian division and definitely have a chance to grab it.
  • The number one ranked team for half the season, TGIF ranks seventh in points over the last 5 weeks and has won only a single game over that period. PWR still thinks there’s a chance as they have the easiest schedule going forward and they’re only one game out of first.

For definitions and calculations of all stats check out Bo Knows Stats. Numbers in parenthesis after a team name indicate the Team Score Rank (how well the team scores points).

Podcast 2016 – Week 8

Probably our best episode yet because this week we had back to back rank one team ERIC on to tell it like it be. We talk about the year so far, go over power rankings, talk strategy, and dig into the mailbag like usual. Don’t forget trade deadline is Nov 9th!

Grouping Teams

This week I put together a graph of each teams average points against their scores. Then I ran each team through a clustering algorithm to see which teams fit into which groups.  The groupings aren’t perfect, but a computer did it so don’t blame me.

The Top Dogs: These teams are top in points and wins and likely playoff bound.

  • Springfield Atoms
  • Nellis AFB Boomers

The Contenders: These are the teams all duking it out for playoff spots. They’ve all collected a decent amout of points or wins.

  • TGIF
  • Dreadmetal Pumaskulls
  • Fluffy Bunnies
  • Columbia Songbirds

Sneaking In: These teams are hoping to sneak into playoffs, but have scored significantly less points than the tier above.

  • Shittysauruses
  • Shenanihads

Toilet Bowl Bound: These are the garbage teams of the league, each hoping to escape the season without adding their name to the Atoms’ trophy.

  • Robot Unicorn
  • Macho Men
  • Giant Octopus
  • Butthole Surfers

And  just for fun here’s another chart with 3 clusters instead of 4:

tiers2

Week 8 Stats

AveragePoints RankLast 3SoSRoS SoSPWR RankWin% v Field
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers114.262119.158262.50%
Springfield Atoms116.341109.17107363.64%
Butthole Surfers98.2412104.5121238.64%
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls111.964113.1393651.14%
The Fluffy Bunnies110.335108.331212153.41%
Randy Savage Macho Men104.35897.8641144.32%
Giant Octopus102.7110109.9211937.50%
Philadelphia Shenanihads101.51187.8745840.91%
Robot Unicorn106.757101.7311047.73%
Shelbyville Shittysauruses104.18999.4789545.45%
Columbia Songbirds109.156107.73116759.09%
Team GoInsanelyFast114.253108.23710454.55%
  • Boomers are leading the league in points over the last 3 weeks with 3 straight wins. They are now the lone 6 win team and sitting atop a competitive division, and with Shenanihads (#8), Surfers (#12), and Macho (#11) on the schedule, should keep rolling.
  • Atoms bounced back after a tough bye week, but the Boomers are slowly catching up to the leader in points.
  • Butthole Surfers 3 game win-streak came to an end with the 2nd lowest score of week 8 and a slide back down to last in points for the season. The only team averaging under 100 points, Surfers could go undefeated the final 6 weeks and still probably miss playoffs.
  • Pumaskulls had their second worst score of the season, but have still scored the 2nd highest points over the last 3 weeks. Now second in their division, they’re tied for a wildcard spot and facing off against TGIF (#2) and Atoms (#1) in the next 3 weeks.
  • Bunnies had the highest score for week 8 and now slide into #1 in PWR. Bunnies have scored over 119 or less than 81 in all but one of their games this year. They’ve benefited from the easiest schedule so far this season, and will only face one top-half team over the final six weeks of the season.
  • Macho Men are the second most consistent team in the league and the 2nd most crappy. They’ve scored under the league average for 6 out of 8 weeks. The only team 4 games out of first, their season is likely over.
  • Octo is 3rd in points over the last 3 weeks but 3 games out of first and a wildcard spot. Although they scored their second highest point total of the season, it was only good for 8th highest total of the week. Just like Surfers, they’ll need to go undefeated just to have a chance at making playoffs.
  • Shenanihads a nice bounceback this week, but still only touting a 21% win vs field over the last 3 weeks. They’ll next face Boomers (#4), TGIF (#2), and Bunnies (#5).
  • Robot Unicorn posts their worst point total of the season and finds themselves slipping in a crowded division.
  • Shittysauruses scored the second highest point total of their season, and remain tied for first. After facing a gauntlet of TGIF (#2), Boomers (#4), and Pumaskulls (#3) with 2 wins, they now get face Macho Men (#11) and the Songbirds (#6).
  • Songbirds halted their losing streak and posted their  highest point total since week 4. They’re sporting the third highest win percentage vs the field, and are only one game out of first.
  • TGIF after losing 3 of the last 4, the top ranked team is now one game out of first, and dropped from 1 to 4 in PWR. They’ll face off against the Pumaskulls (#3) before the schedule gets easier.

For definitions and calculations of all stats check out Bo Knows Stats. Numbers in parenthesis after a team name indicate the Team Score Rank (how well the team scores points).