Archive: Author: commish

I’ll post the final odds in a table below but I mostly just want to go over the nitty-gritty and cut to what matters.

Locked!

We’re up to 4 teams that are now locked for the playoffs:

• TGIF
• Shenanihads
• Pumaskulls
• Surfers

There’s still something interesting things that can happen to shake up some of the seeding, but TGIF is a lock for the #1 after extending his point lead this week. Pumaskulls will duke it out with Surfers for the #3 seed, while Shenanihads still have to contend with Giant Octopus and Shittysauruses for the #1 spot in Misfits and the #2 seed.

Who are the 5th and 6th team?

With losses this week the Narwhals and Nibblonians were eliminated. So who’s grabbing the last two spots? Well… we don’t know yet. There’s 3 teams fighting for those spots: Giant Octopus, Shittysauruses, and Boomers. Octo and Shitty are in a position to take over the division, and Boomers are hanging on by a thread to get a wild card spot.

What exactly are the scenarios this week? (The % show the likelihood of each event)

We’ll walk through each of these.

Boomers lose to TGIF

If the Boomers lose this week, nothing else really matters. At that point Giant Octopus will advance with wins and Shittysauruses will advance with points.

Boomers win against TGIF

Now things get interesting. If the Boomers win, there’s still several ways for it to go wrong for them.

Shittysauruses vs Shenanihads

If Shittyauruses win this game, then its over for Boomers, if Shitty loses, she’s the one out in the cold. This game also has some pretty big implications for Shenanihads getting the #2 seed.

Giant Octopus vs Mega Shark

This game has the same results as Shittysauruses for Octo if they lose, *but* they have an out – even with a loss. Because of their strong win total, and the Boomers and Giant Octopus’ low point totals, Giant Octopus can also win a tie-breaker against Boomers by outscoring them by 30 points this week.

Overall Odds

The teams are going to fall into three tiers (and Atoms)

We’re Going to Playoffs (Tier 1)

The top dogs. Despite these teams all being from one division, they all have such a great win and point total that they’re all locked (or nearly) for playoffs.

TGIF – 100%

TGIF is the only team that’s locked for playoffs. They’ve got a huge point lead and currently sit atop the division. There are a few ways that they can drop in the playoff rankings but with or without the first round bye, they’ll be there.

Dreadmetal Pumaskulls – 99.9%

Pumaskulls are a near lock and are catching on points with TGIF. With so few games left in the season it’ll be hard to beat them in points, but a few timely wins could propel Pumaskulls to the top of the division and nab the first round bye.

Butthole Surfers – 96.9%

The Surfers are nearly locking up a playoff spot, though its less likely to be the top spot in their division, and more likely one of the top wild card spots. This means that they’ll have a good chance on feeding on whatever crappy team from the Misfits sneaks into the #6 spot.

Most of Us Are Going to Playoffs (Tier 2)

4 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots. 3 of the teams are all fighting for the #2 seed but one (and possibly more) of these teams will not be making playoffs.

Boomers – 80%

With the stiff competition in division, it’s likely that the Boomers won’t even take a top wildcard spot, let a lone division lead (though not impossible). They’re also the team with the lowest point total from this group, and could quickly fall to the bottom of this pile if they drop 2-3 games over the last few weeks.

Shenanihads – 62%

The team currently sitting a top the Misfits division only has a 36% chance of staying there. This division is getting extremely tight and there are four teams that have a greater than 10% chance of finishing #1. With the top seed Shenanihads (and the rest of the Misfits) will be duking it out for the 5/6 seed and a probably first round matchup with TGIF/Pumaskulls/Surfers.

Shittysauruses – 52%

Shittysauruses are the team with the least amount of wins from this tier, but by far the most points. Not just a lot of points for their division, but 2nd in points in the league means that just a win or two could vault them to the top of the pile of wildcards, or even a division title.

Rusty Narwhals – 47%

The Narwhals are tied for 1st in their division but trail Shenanihads and Shittysauruses in points. The one win could make all the difference as well as a win against their division rival Shittysauruses. Even a loss there might not spell doom as they play Giant Octopus and Fluffy Bunnies to close out the season.

Probably not going to Playoffs but at least there’s a chance (Tier 3)

The leftovers. Most of these teams are pretty hopeful but the odds (and math) are stacked against them. If there’s 4 teams fighting for 3 spots in the tier above them, that means that the teams down here are hoping for two teams to drop out of that tier. Definitely not impossible, but a lot of these teams could just as likely be eliminated in a week or two.

Giant Octopus – 32%

Giant Octopus’ high win total is the only thing that might carry them into playoffs. They rank dead last in points so any kind of tie-breaker situation will immediately throw them into the basement. That same high win total also means their vying for divisional lead. Anything from a first round bye to being eliminated is in the cards for Giant Octopus.

Mega Shark – 11%

Mega Shark is in a similar situation to Giant Octopus, but with one less win but a few more points. The range of outcomes is even tighter for this team with the only probable outcomes being the division winner, or the last wildcard. They’ll get a chance to knock out the teams ahead of them over the last three weeks, and a chance to take out their division rivals, Giant Octopus, in the final week of the season.

The Nibblonians – 11%

Nibblonians are in a completely different situation than the other teams in this tier. While most of the other teams in this tier are only competitive because their division is a mess, the Nibblonians are stuck at the bottom of a tough division. Their only path to playoffs is through a wild card spot, and thankfully they’ve got the points (6th) to make that a real possibility. The only thing standing in their way is 3 of the top 4 teams to close out the season.

The Fluffy Bunnies – 10%

Even our 11th ranked team has a 3% chance of grabbing a first round bye. Bunnies are in a similar situation to Giant Octopus as points are concerned, but with one less win. That win makes a huge difference, as well as the schedule where they will play Giant Octopus, but then the Shenanihads and the Narwhals, two of the better teams from the division. They control their destiny but it won’t be easy.

And the Atoms (Tier Atoms)

We haven’t talked much about the toilet bowl this year. Certainly looks like the Atoms are heading that way this season, but with a much better team than we’ve seen the past.

Atoms – ??%

While not mathematically eliminated, they are outside the Juan-Window and extremely unlikely to secure a playoff spot. They’ll be looking to get in some keeper trades, stock up for the toilet bowl, or both.