The second (and last) Seattle edition of the pod. This episode we enjoy some new delicious oreo flavors, brag about the alcohol we’re drinking, and take another look at the power rankings after a wild third week.
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See how your team would do with another team’s schedule here.
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I’ll post the final odds in a table below but I mostly just want to go over the nitty-gritty and cut to what matters.
We’re up to 4 teams that are now locked for the playoffs:
There’s still something interesting things that can happen to shake up some of the seeding, but TGIF is a lock for the #1 after extending his point lead this week. Pumaskulls will duke it out with Surfers for the #3 seed, while Shenanihads still have to contend with Giant Octopus and Shittysauruses for the #1 spot in Misfits and the #2 seed.
With losses this week the Narwhals and Nibblonians were eliminated. So who’s grabbing the last two spots? Well… we don’t know yet. There’s 3 teams fighting for those spots: Giant Octopus, Shittysauruses, and Boomers. Octo and Shitty are in a position to take over the division, and Boomers are hanging on by a thread to get a wild card spot.
What exactly are the scenarios this week? (The % show the likelihood of each event)
We’ll walk through each of these.
If the Boomers lose this week, nothing else really matters. At that point Giant Octopus will advance with wins and Shittysauruses will advance with points.
Now things get interesting. If the Boomers win, there’s still several ways for it to go wrong for them.
If Shittyauruses win this game, then its over for Boomers, if Shitty loses, she’s the one out in the cold. This game also has some pretty big implications for Shenanihads getting the #2 seed.
This game has the same results as Shittysauruses for Octo if they lose, *but* they have an out – even with a loss. Because of their strong win total, and the Boomers and Giant Octopus’ low point totals, Giant Octopus can also win a tie-breaker against Boomers by outscoring them by 30 points this week.
| Team | One Seed | Two Seed | Three Seed | Four Seed | Five Seed | Six Seed | Total Odds |
| TGIF | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| PHSH | 0% | 40% | 0% | 1% | 32% | 27% | 100% |
| DMPS | 0% | 0% | 65% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| BUTT | 0% | 0% | 35% | 49% | 15% | 1% | 100% |
| OCTO | 0% | 28% | 0% | 6% | 29% | 29% | 91% |
| SHSR | 0% | 32% | 0% | 9% | 19% | 28% | 88% |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 15% | 21% |
| ATOM | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FLUF | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| MEGA | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| NIBB | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| RUST | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Going to mostly go over the changes from last week’s article. I don’t make these tiers, the computer does, so don’t blame me. I’ll mark significant (but not all) changes in parentheses.
Some changes already in the top tier. Pumaskulls locking down their spot and Surfers dropping into the tier below.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 75% (+7) | 0% | 24% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
TGIF took the W and got a little bit closer to locking up their first place seed.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 24% (-1) | 0% | 60% | 16% | 0% | 0% |
Pumaskulls got the win which upped their 3/4 seed spots, but couldn’t make enough ground on TGIF and lost a bit of a chance to catch the #1 spot.
4 teams for 4 playoff spots. These teams are either duking it out for the top of the misfits, or one of the wild card spots.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 1% | 0% | 16% | 51% | 16% | 7% |
Surfers still down quite a bit but still have excellent odds to make it to playoffs thanks to their point total. They’ve surpassed Pumaskulls for the #3 points spot and just need a win to stay on top of a large pile of wildcards.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 45% (+10) | 0% | 3% | 18% | 12% |
Shenanihads moving above Boomers and looking even more likely to retain the division lead. They’ll need to keep winning to keep a lead on Shittysauruses who have a good point lead over them, and Giant Octopus who are currently tied with wins.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 37% | 0% | 4% | 7% | 15% |
Shittysauruses got an important win over the Narwhals and now look a lot more likely to make playoffs. They’ll need to continuing winning as they’re currently one win behind a lot of the wild card teams.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% (-2) | 0% | 0% (-4) | 13% | 23% (-14) | 21% |
Boomers took the L and put up a pretty abysmal score which knocks them way down to the current 6 seed. They’ll need to make up a lot of ground to stay in the playoff race, and the odds of getting back on top of the division are gone.
These teams are still outside the top dogs but thanks to wins or decent point totals might have a chance.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 15% | 0% | 4% | 9% | 19% |
Giant Octopus pulled out another lucky win and now have almost a coin flips odds of making it to playoff despite being the absolute worst team in points. Currently tied for first in the division, a few more lucky wins could have them grab the #2 seed.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 3% (-14) | 0% | 4% | 9% | 19% |
The Narwhals aren’t out of it yet, but have a much less clear path to making it. They’ll need to rack up two more wins to close out the season and hope for either a lot of points, or the teams ahead of them performing pretty bad.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 12% (+8) | 11% (+5) |
Nibblonians pulled off a huge upset win and scored a bucket of points. This gives them the biggest gain of the week and has them with a real outside chance of sneaking into playoffs. The road won’t be easy against TGIF and Pumaskulls, but makes the story that much better.
Some teams possibly heading for the toilet bowl. Not going to spend a ton of time talking about them, but Mega Shark is the only one that has a slight window of a chance (1%). They’ll face off against Shittysaurses in this week to try and get back in it.
A “quick” rundown on how the playoff picture is starting to look.
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| ALL SEASON | Change | Record | Average | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS WEEK | Change | Record | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNP | Change | Record | PF | PA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMBC | Change | Record | PF | PA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The teams are going to fall into three tiers (and Atoms)
The top dogs. Despite these teams all being from one division, they all have such a great win and point total that they’re all locked (or nearly) for playoffs.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 68% | 0% | 24% | 6% | 2% | 0% |
TGIF is the only team that’s locked for playoffs. They’ve got a huge point lead and currently sit atop the division. There are a few ways that they can drop in the playoff rankings but with or without the first round bye, they’ll be there.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 25% | 0% | 47% | 22% | 6% | 1% |
Pumaskulls are a near lock and are catching on points with TGIF. With so few games left in the season it’ll be hard to beat them in points, but a few timely wins could propel Pumaskulls to the top of the division and nab the first round bye.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 5% | 0% | 25% | 50% | 14% | 4% |
The Surfers are nearly locking up a playoff spot, though its less likely to be the top spot in their division, and more likely one of the top wild card spots. This means that they’ll have a good chance on feeding on whatever crappy team from the Misfits sneaks into the #6 spot.
4 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots. 3 of the teams are all fighting for the #2 seed but one (and possibly more) of these teams will not be making playoffs.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 2% | 0% | 4% | 17% | 37% | 19% |
With the stiff competition in division, it’s likely that the Boomers won’t even take a top wildcard spot, let a lone division lead (though not impossible). They’re also the team with the lowest point total from this group, and could quickly fall to the bottom of this pile if they drop 2-3 games over the last few weeks.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 36% | 0% | 1% | 11% | 14% |
The team currently sitting a top the Misfits division only has a 36% chance of staying there. This division is getting extremely tight and there are four teams that have a greater than 10% chance of finishing #1. With the top seed Shenanihads (and the rest of the Misfits) will be duking it out for the 5/6 seed and a probably first round matchup with TGIF/Pumaskulls/Surfers.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 28% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 18% |
Shittysauruses are the team with the least amount of wins from this tier, but by far the most points. Not just a lot of points for their division, but 2nd in points in the league means that just a win or two could vault them to the top of the pile of wildcards, or even a division title.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 17% | 0% | 1% | 13% | 15% |
The Narwhals are tied for 1st in their division but trail Shenanihads and Shittysauruses in points. The one win could make all the difference as well as a win against their division rival Shittysauruses. Even a loss there might not spell doom as they play Giant Octopus and Fluffy Bunnies to close out the season.
The leftovers. Most of these teams are pretty hopeful but the odds (and math) are stacked against them. If there’s 4 teams fighting for 3 spots in the tier above them, that means that the teams down here are hoping for two teams to drop out of that tier. Definitely not impossible, but a lot of these teams could just as likely be eliminated in a week or two.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 11% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 15% |
Giant Octopus’ high win total is the only thing that might carry them into playoffs. They rank dead last in points so any kind of tie-breaker situation will immediately throw them into the basement. That same high win total also means their vying for divisional lead. Anything from a first round bye to being eliminated is in the cards for Giant Octopus.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% |
Mega Shark is in a similar situation to Giant Octopus, but with one less win but a few more points. The range of outcomes is even tighter for this team with the only probable outcomes being the division winner, or the last wildcard. They’ll get a chance to knock out the teams ahead of them over the last three weeks, and a chance to take out their division rivals, Giant Octopus, in the final week of the season.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 6% |
Nibblonians are in a completely different situation than the other teams in this tier. While most of the other teams in this tier are only competitive because their division is a mess, the Nibblonians are stuck at the bottom of a tough division. Their only path to playoffs is through a wild card spot, and thankfully they’ve got the points (6th) to make that a real possibility. The only thing standing in their way is 3 of the top 4 teams to close out the season.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% |
Even our 11th ranked team has a 3% chance of grabbing a first round bye. Bunnies are in a similar situation to Giant Octopus as points are concerned, but with one less win. That win makes a huge difference, as well as the schedule where they will play Giant Octopus, but then the Shenanihads and the Narwhals, two of the better teams from the division. They control their destiny but it won’t be easy.
We haven’t talked much about the toilet bowl this year. Certainly looks like the Atoms are heading that way this season, but with a much better team than we’ve seen the past.
| One | Two | Three | Four | Five | Six |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
While not mathematically eliminated, they are outside the Juan-Window and extremely unlikely to secure a playoff spot. They’ll be looking to get in some keeper trades, stock up for the toilet bowl, or both.
It’s time to talk about PLAYOFFS. We got through each teams playoff chances, who’s a buyer and seller, and then we dig into some Bo Knows origins.
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There are only *three* weeks left in the season! There are currently *zero* teams eliminated from the playoffs.
This is the last week to make trades so it’s time to decide if you’re in or you’re out. While only one team has astronomically bad odds to getting into the playoffs (Atoms), there are too many teams fighting for too few spots. TGIF, Pumaskulls, and the Surfers are all either locked, or a near lock for playoffs. The next three spots are almost certainly going to be taken by 3 of the following 4 teams: Shittysauruses, Shenanihads, Narhwals, and Boomers. This leaves Nibblonians, Mega Shark, and Giant Octopus all hoping that not only will their team continue to win, but that one or more of the 4 teams in front of them will falter.
TGIF stumbled big time in a prime time MotW. Missing some key starters, they posted by far their worst score of the season and the low score of the week. Their opponent, the Surfers, also had one of their worst scores of the season but still would have beaten two teams this week. For the first time of the season, TGIFs wins against the field have dropped below Shittysauruses. Shittysaurus was missing many key players on bye and suffered a similar fate to TGIF, only score 116 points. Thankfully, The Misfits division isn’t putting up much a fight and the Shittysauruses are only one game out of first place. They’ll take their fate into their own hands as they finish of the season against the Narwhals (#8), and Shenanihads (#5), two of the teams ahead of them.
The Narwhals are another team hoping to stay in the top six, and even potentially grab division lead. The playoff machine has them with a 20% chance to finish the season atop The Misfits and grab a first round bye. The Shenanihads are the current favorite to take that spot with a 35% chance. That chance dipped this week with a loss to the Nibblonians, but they still hold a decent point lead on everyone but Shittysauruses.
The Nibblonians put up their best score since week 4, but unfortunately find themselves near the bottom of a tough division. On top of that, they have to play Surfers (#4), TGIF (#2), and Pumaskulls (#3) to finish off the season. They’ll need to win probably at least two if not all three. Even with 2 more wins, the Boomers are in a similar position where two of their last games are against TGIF and Pumaskulls, and even a couple losses could quickly drive them down to the bottom of the pile with their low point total.
Mega Shark and Bunnies are at the bottom of The Misfits, and like a lot of other teams, will need to win most of their games to have a shot. Bunnies have put up back to back 90 point weeks but have a pretty soft schedule to close out the season. Mega Shark has a much tougher, but impactful schedule, playing Shenanihads, Shittysauruses, and Octo to close out the year.
After receiving a lot of commissioner shit talk, the Pumaskulls have averaged 170 points over the last two weeks and finally nabbed the high score of the week.
| ALL SEASON | Change | Record | Average | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS WEEK | Change | Record | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNP | Change | Record | PF | PA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMBC | Change | Record | PF | PA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|