So now it’s time to look at how some of these different inflation models will affect how long you can keep a player. I’ll look at different players from different price points, all with their drafted price from the previous season. I’ll be posting most of the prices through the years, but in general I’m going to treat the cutoff at what their value is in the upcoming season.
I’m posting the flat $5 increase per year on this sheet but I think this shows pretty quickly that it’s a broken system that’s not worth using. For almost all players you’d likely be able to keep them for their entire career.
Also, these keeper values assume that the player stays in perfect health, in the perfect situation for their entire career. As I’m sure everyone can attest, future value is far from certain in fantasy football and I would be shocked if you could list more than 10 guys who kept their value for more than 3 straight years.
James Conner
The dream. You hit on a $1 draft player or a waiver wire pick who’s now going near the first round. How long will you be able to keep this type of player under each scenario?
Original Price: $1
Current Value: $40
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $14.00 | $29.00 | $47.00 | $69.00 | $95.00 | $126.00 |
| Med | $8.00 | $16.00 | $26.00 | $38.00 | $52.00 | $69.00 |
| Low | $6.00 | $11.00 | $16.00 | $21.00 | $26.00 | $31.00 |
So with the high inflation you’re probably only keeping Conner for two extra years before his value will become pretty questionable. With Medium inflation you should be able to keep him for four extra years with a possible fifth if he really crushed it.
Kenny Golladay
Original Price: $4
Current Value: $23
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $17.00 | $33.00 | $52.00 | $75.00 | $102.00 | $135.00 |
| Med | $11.00 | $20.00 | $30.00 | $42.00 | $57.00 | $75.00 |
| Low | $9.00 | $14.00 | $19.00 | $24.00 | $29.00 | $34.00 |
A nice value for the first couple years but his value peters out pretty quickly beyond that. With the high inflation you would maybe keep for one or two years. With the medium inflation you’d probably keep him 2-3 years and maybe four if he turned into a real stud.
Deshaun Watson
Original Price: $7
Current Value: $17
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $21.00 | $38.00 | $58.00 | $82.00 | $111.00 | $146.00 |
| Med | $15.00 | $24.00 | $35.00 | $48.00 | $64.00 | $83.00 |
| Low | $12.00 | $17.00 | $22.00 | $27.00 | $32.00 | $37.00 |
Under high inflation I’m not even sure you would keep him one year and with medium you’d likely just keep one extra year.
Mark Ingram
Original Price: $13
Current Value: $17
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $28.00 | $46.00 | $68.00 | $94.00 | $125.00 | $162.00 |
| Med | $22.00 | $33.00 | $46.00 | $62.00 | $81.00 | $104.00 |
| Low | $18.00 | $23.00 | $28.00 | $33.00 | $38.00 | $43.00 |
Another tough keep. I’m not even sure under anything but low inflation that you’d keep him at all unless you really liked him.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Original Price: $22
Current Value: $45
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $39.00 | $59.00 | $83.00 | $112.00 | $147.00 | $189.00 |
| Med | $33.00 | $46.00 | $62.00 | $81.00 | $104.00 | $131.00 |
| Low | $27.00 | $32.00 | $37.00 | $42.00 | $47.00 | $52.00 |
With high inflation you’d be able to keep him one extra year. With medium inflation you’d be look at an extra two years. Not bad for a stud wide receiver.
Tyreek Hill
Original Price: $33
Current Value: $44
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $52.00 | $75.00 | $102.00 | $135.00 | $174.00 | $221.00 |
| Med | $46.00 | $62.00 | $81.00 | $104.00 | $131.00 | $164.00 |
| Low | $38.00 | $43.00 | $48.00 | $53.00 | $58.00 | $63.00 |
Yikes. Maybe one extra year with medium inflation but that’s all.
Alvin Kamara
Original Price: $51
Current Value: $57
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | |
| High | $74.00 | $101.00 | $134.00 | $173.00 | $220.00 | $276.00 |
| Med | $68.00 | $88.00 | $112.00 | $141.00 | $176.00 | $218.00 |
| Low | $56.00 | $61.00 | $66.00 | $71.00 | $76.00 | $81.00 |
Yikes again. With medium and high inflation there’s just no way you’re keeping any of your studs unless you absolutely love them. Even then you’re only looking at one extra year max.
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