Archive: Author: commish

Matchup of the Week – Week 12

Posted on by commish

A Division 1 rematch that will decide who makes playoffs. Will The Nibblonians make it to the playoffs in their inaugural season? All that stands in their way is an endless fountain of luck for one of the worst teams in the league. A win here for the Nibblonians could send Bunnies into a elimination spiral, while a defeat for would almost certainly seal the Nibblonians fate.

These teams last met in week three when Brees and Antonio Brown did their best to overcome the deficit the Panthers D/ST left in her lineup. The Bunnies were able to pull off the win with big performances by Cousins, McCaffrey, and Hilton. Since that match-up, both teams have averaged 101 points, although the Nibblonians have been far more erratic – scoring as low as 60 and as high as 161. Which version of the Nibblonians will we see this week?

PWR projections give The Nibblonians the edge with a 57% chance of winning, in part due to the three straight weeks of raising their score. Despite the loss of Robert Woods the Nibblonians have the same 57% edge in player projections. The Bunnies have a slight edge at running back, and we’ll get to see revenge games from both Dion Lewis and DeMarco Murray. While Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery have been no slouches, Nibblonians get a huge boost at wide receiver thanks to Antonio Brown. With The Nibblonians’ Steelers playing late Sunday night, the Bunnies will have to hope that their early scoring is enough to fend of the Antonio Brown/Big Ben stack.

Final Prediction:

The Nibblonians: 114

The Fluffy Bunnies: 107

Who do you think will win? Make sure to leave a comment and vote on the game.

Podcast 2017- Week 11

Posted on by commish

The gang is back this week to talk about waiver wire depth, some potential rule changes, and most importantly – which teams are which Game of Thrones families. Make sure you stick around to the end of this extended podcast.

Some of the studies I tried to reference about risk aversion:

4th Down: When to Go for It and Why

4th Down Study

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Where Are The Points Coming From?

Posted on by commish

I’ve always wanted to look at a breakdown of how each teams players were acquired, and today’s the day I can finally do that. The player scraper can now go in and see how each team acquired each player: Draft, Free Agency, and Trade. So now we can take a look at each team and see where they’re getting the most points from. First here’s a league-wide breakdown:

And here’s each team’s breakdown:

The highest scoring team, Butthole Surfers, have the greatest mix, with less than half of their points coming out of drafted players. On the other end we have the Shenanihads who are riding their core of drafted players all the way to the playoffs.

I thought for sure the Pumaskulls would have the most points earned from free agents, but the Surfers have been earning 40 points a week off dudes picked up from the waiver wire. While most of the Surfers FA points have come through the Ravens D/ST, Boomers have earned quite a few points off the WW as well with picks like Marqise Lee, Cameron Brate, Jared Cook, and Latavius Murray.

Giant Octopus has earned the most points from traded players with early trades for top receivers AJ Green and Brandin Cooks.

 

Check out the data yourself. These are the point totals from started players. The full data set is available on google sheets.

DraftFree AgencyTrade
Butthole Surfers587.5439.3247.9
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls685298.5160.3
Giant Octopus635259.4256.6
Mega Shark768.787.1114.9
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers597.4355.4141.7
Philadelphia Shenanihads1009.3117.133.3
Robot Unicorn649342.60
Shelbyville Shittysauruses904.1264.20
Springfield Atoms724.1218.812.6
Team GoInsanelyFast709.1314.70
The Fluffy Bunnies662.2243135.4
The Nibblonians774.3278.748.6

Week 11 Tiers and Playoff Odds

Posted on by commish

So this week I made an update to the clustering script and had it include playoff odds as well. It’s grouping the teams a little bit better now based on how strong they’ve performed so well, and what their playoff chances look like. I’m also including odds of hitting the #1/2 seed, but it’s just napkin math because I haven’t modified the PLAYOFF MACHINE to count stuff like that yet.

The Top Dogs: These teams are top in points, atop their division, and locked for playoffs.

  • Dreadmetal Pumaskulls (100%) (67% chance for #1, 33% for #2)
  • Butthole Surfers (100%*) (33% chance for #1 seed, 61% chance for #2, 6% chance no bye)

Life, uh, finds a way: The Bunnies stand alone in this tier. Although they have a good shot to make playoffs and they’re most likely team to boot Surfers from the #2 seed, they also could just as easily drop to the #7 seed after week 11. Every 6-5 team has a chance to win this week and the Bunnies are facing the Nibblonians, another 6-5 team. The loss would immediately drop them to the bottom of the tie-breaker.

  • Fluffy Bunnies (90.74%) (0.1% chance for #1, 6% chance for #2 seed)

The Back Half: Four teams fighting for three spots. Although the Shittysauruses have the highest point total out of this group they also face Surfers in week 11, severely damping their playoff hopes. Like I mentioned above though, if Nibblinians beat Bunnies and the rest of the teams win, Bunnies will quickly be at the bottom of this pile. Everyone in this tier has a <1% chance at hitting the #2 seed.

  • Philadelphia Shenanihads (93.37%)
  • Giant Octopus (84.20%)
  • The Nibblonians (66.76%)
  • Shelbyville Shittysauruses (63.36%)

Toilet Bowl Bound: The window is shrinking for these teams, and while they’re not all technically eliminated it’s a long shot for them to make playoffs. Time to prep for not going to the Toilet Bowl.

  • Nellis AFB Boomers (1.29%)
  • Robot Unicorn (0.28%)
  • TGIF (0.001%)
  • Springfield Atoms (0.001%)
  • Mega Shark (Eliminated)

*Brett wanted everyone to know that Surfers are only a practical lock for playoffs, not a mathematical lock. In the scenario that every team below outscores them by 60-90 points a week and they lose the last two games, they will be eliminated from playoffs.

Matchup of the Week – Week 11

Posted on by commish

This week features a return of the defeated Shenanihads hoping to bounce back against a struggling Giant Octopus. This game is a rematch of week four, where the Shenanihads crushed Giant Octopus 121.1 to 97.1. Giant Octopus has struggled against Shenanihads in the past only winning two out of their seven matchups. The teams have a very similar average score this season, although Giant Octopus has shown much greater volatility.

PWR has the teams reasonably close, giving the slight edge to Giant Octopus and their higher average and higher ceiling. The player projections however give that edge back to the Shenanihads and their more balanced player roster. Both teams have fairly even rosters, although there is a pretty big discrepancy between Giant Octopus’ streaming D/ST, and the Shenanihads rock-solid Jaguars. Both teams have strong #1 players at the core positions, and it should be interesting watch Fournette vs Hunt, Thomas vs Green, and Kelce vs Gronk. With a couple Titans playing on Thursday, and multiple Falcons playing on Monday night, this one is sure to be a nail biter all the way through.

Final Prediction:

Giant Octopus: 111

Shenanihads: 113

Who do you think will win? Make sure to leave a comment and vote on the game.

Podcast 2017 – Week 10

Posted on by commish

Better late than never! We’ve got Matt on this week to talk about injuries, awesome defensive players, and how he started the utility player wave that’s sweeping the NFL.

Just incase anyone doesn’t know, you can subscribe to the podcast through whatever podcast app you use (or the podbean app) and it’ll automatically download the episodes as soon as they come out. The feed is here:

http://boknowsfantasy.podbean.com/feed/

Just copy paste into your podcast app!

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PWR Mailbag Part III

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Justin, is K-Hunt on the Podcast: Please describe the feeling of your moms, so then I can have two leagues where I am not a fucking nerd I don’t want to say, I am now the only difference being I can live vicariously through you. Signed, regretful non-owner of AB (Austin)

The only way to change my character, I am in my line up. -Fluffy

Handsomest podcast crew this year. But no more. Are you ready for a friend.

Dear Bo Knows, It’s me again. I can’t keep up the charade any longer. I am having a Halloween party on the 4-1 record while losing so many players.

Hey Eric, this is why I confide in you, a totally separate league that I was lost. Holding on by a thread, just like to say that running backs can not escape the predictions of the podcast?

Next years draft should be on a highway because that’s where most accidents happen.

Dear boomers, i am very disappointed in the league.

Wait… Jim is still in the league. How long will the Shittysauruses keep renewing her contract? Will she ever be a shame. I don’t have any obvious holes.

I’d call you a tool, but that would imply you were given a free hall pass…. which team would have the worst score of the league? I suppose you are going to start slow like last year for byes in the playoffs.

Is Lucinda a sneaky Robo team? There is a pile of shit.

Justin, Still willing to trade with? Not just this season but overall.

Andrew, if you ask me, I think there is no reasoning behind the random and chaotic nature of the playoff picture. Anarchy is in favor this week.

I’m not saying I hate you, but I can’t face the prospect of appearing on my league’s podcast, but I do this? How do I need to donate to help you?

You know who it is, and I will never be wrangled! Rejoice, as I transcend art and reality and time and listening to Brett last week, I’m not questioning your intelligence, merely denying its existence.

What the fuck is up with nothing but destroyed hopes. Especially the Pumaskulls. Oh, the comedy of the season? Trade, draft, drop, pick up, etc.

Top Lifetime Players

Posted on by commish

So here’s a breakdown the players with the most amount of starts for each team.

Aaron Rodgers – QB – 33
Antonio Gates – TE – 30
Ray Rice – RB – 29
David Akers – K – 27
Emmanuel Sanders – WR – 25

 Nick Folk – K – 34
Jamaal Charles – RB – 26
Greg Olsen – TE – 26
Matthew Stafford – QB – 23
Texans D/ST – D/ST – 18		 Odell Beckham Jr. – WR – 13
LeVeon Bell – RB – 13
Mark Ingram – RB – 10
Michael Thomas – WR – 9
Jimmy Graham – TE – 9

Antonio Brown – WR – 58
Drew Brees – QB – 26
Lamar Miller – RB – 23
Russell Wilson – QB – 19
Seahawks D/ST – D/ST – 18

 Michael Crabtree – WR – 26
Lions D/ST – D/ST – 25
Jason Hanson – K – 24
Brandon Pettigrew – TE – 24
Chris Johnson – RB – 21

Tom Brady – QB – 35
Frank Gore – RB – 27
A.J. Green – WR – 26
LeSean McCoy – RB – 25
Wes Welker – WR – 22
Marshawn Lynch – RB – 8
Drew Brees – QB – 8
Antonio Brown – WR – 8
Zach Ertz – TE – 7
Rishard Matthews – WR – 7		 Rob Gronkowski – TE – 28
Matt Bryant – K – 28
Julio Jones – WR – 26
Adrian Peterson – RB – 24
Philip Rivers – QB – 18

Larry Fitzgerald – WR – 33
Martellus Bennett – TE – 26
Greg Olsen – TE – 26
Demaryius Thomas – WR – 26
Mason Crosby – K – 25

Jeremy Maclin – WR – 31
Jordy Nelson – WR – 29
Eric Decker – WR – 26
Randall Cobb – WR – 24
Cam Newton – QB – 24

Travis Kelce – TE – 25
Matt Ryan – QB – 24
Frank Gore – RB – 24
Dez Bryant – WR – 23
Rob Gronkowski – TE – 22

Matt Forte – RB – 53
Drew Brees – QB – 28
Andre Johnson – WR – 23
A.J. Green – WR – 23
DeMarco Murray – RB – 22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lifetime Points

Posted on by commish

Well guys I did it. It took weeks of coding and almost a full day of scraping hundreds of pages, but I have all the player data from every season. I decided to post the top performers for each position and each team. This is the player who has scored the most amount of points for each team over the course of their Bo Knows career. You can view all the raw data here. Feel free to make a copy and play with it.

TeamQBPtsRBPtsWRPtsTEPtsD/STPtsKPts
BoomersAaron Rodgers692.9Ray Rice394.6Emmanuel Sanders335.1Antonio Gates287.549ers D/ST209David Akers255
AtomsMatthew Stafford418.7Jamaal Charles473.8Jordy Nelson198.8Greg Olsen319.9Jets D/ST99Nick Folk267
SurfersMarcus Mariota123.4LeVeon Bell294.6Odell Beckham Jr.204.7Jimmy Graham94.9Ravens D/ST77.6
PumaskullsDrew Brees523.5Lamar Miller303Antonio Brown1002.3Delanie Walker131.3Seahawks D/ST104Lawrence Tynes114
BunniesMatthew Stafford246.5Chris Johnson246.5Michael Crabtree258.8Tyler Eifert152.4Lions D/ST182Jason Hanson216
Mega SharkTom Brady630LeSean McCoy471.5A.J. Green396.2Jason Witten132.7Patriots D/ST88Shaun Suisham132.9
Giant OctopusPhilip Rivers262.8Adrian Peterson429.4Julio Jones460.5Rob Gronkowski378.6Rams D/ST114Matt Bryant254
ShenanihadsAaron Rodgers581.7Arian Foster250.5Demaryius Thomas451.5Martellus Bennett269.5Seahawks D/ST155Mason Crosby213
Robot UnicornCam Newton440.9Devonta Freeman273.9Jeremy Maclin374.1Jason Witten168Packers D/ST170Matt Prater134
ShittysaurusesMatt Ryan410.1David Johnson305.5Dez Bryant317.3Rob Gronkowski309.8Steelers D/ST64Nick Novak138
TGIFDrew Brees526.3Matt Forte723.7A.J. Green332.3Owen Daniels142.4Texans D/ST112Steven Hauschka133

Team Stat Totals

Posted on by commish

This week I was digging through player data some more and decided to post up the stat totals for each team. Pretty crazy looking at where each team is getting their points.

Pass YardsPass TDRush YardsRush TDReceptionsRec YardsRec TDInterceptionsFumbles
Butthole Surfers23651320081625427841988
Dreadmetal Pumaskulls2572.5181280725425912365
Giant Octopus19451116581023031491973
Mega Shark2190191284418922421146
Nellis A.F.B. Boomers2057.51118821522825701656
Philadelphia Shenanihads2382.5131075826829842186
Robot Unicorn2187.5171251922821141656
Shelbyville Shittysauruses20301711881124731351842
Springfield Atoms2787.5161152420020111423
Team GoInsanelyFast1962.5241522420625231054
The Fluffy Bunnies2472.5161024325727161548
The Nibblonians2497.5131028822426641563

 

Matchup of the Week – Week 11

Posted on by commish

Two of the top teams from Division B go at it this week in a game that will definitely impact the Shenanihads path to the playoffs. They’ve met once already this season with the Pumaskulls edging out the Shenanihads 101.1-87.5. The teams are 4-4 against each other lifetime, so this matchup will determine just who the better team is overall (till next year). The Shenanihads have struggled the last few weeks, only averaging 87.4 points a game, while Pumaskulls have been surging, posting their highest point total of the season last week. Both teams have been extremely consistent with a low score of ~80 points and both averaging ~104 points per game.

PWR has the teams extremely close, 51% to 49% with Pumaskulls getting the edge. The player projection system has a dead split 50-50 with each team projected to score about 105 points. Pumaskulls clearly have the edge with Russell Wilson going against the struggling Matt Ryan while the Shenanihads have the edge at running back with Leonard Fournette back in the line-up. The Shenanihads also have a slight edge at wide receiver although with Travis Kelce on bye, they have a significant hole at the tight end position. Most of the action takes place on Thur and early Sunday so we may have a winner early, but with Devante Parker playing on Monday we may be stuck waiting till the end of the week to declare a winner.

Final Prediction:

Pumaskulls: 103

Shenanihads: 107

Who do you think will win? Make sure to leave a comment and vote on the game.

Tiers Update

Posted on by commish

Looking at tiers again but this time with playoff chances!

The Top Dogs: These teams are top in points, atop their division, and nearly locked for playoffs.

  • Dreadmetal Pumaskulls (99%)
  • Butthole Surfers (99%)
  • Shellbyville Shittysauruses (95%)

The Contenders: This tier is pretty interesting because it includes two teams that have scored as well as two teams from the tier above, but are lacking in wins. Boomers lacks the points the wins and points from the teams above, but have obviously performed better than the teams below.

  • Giant Octopus (90%)
  • Philadelphia Shenanihads (86%)
  • Nellis AFB Boomers (41%)

The Sixth Spot: These teams haven’t scored nearly as much as the teams above, but have scored enough wins to stay competitive. They’ll need to get in shape if they want to secure a playoff spot.

  • Fluffy Bunnies (52%)
  • Robot Unicorn (17%)
  • Nibblonians (18%)

Toilet Bowl Bound: The window is shrinking for these teams, and while they’re not technically eliminated it’s a long shot for them to make playoffs. All these teams have ~1% chance to make it to the show.

  • TGIF
  • Springfield Atoms
  • Mega Shark