Week 4 Charts – 2018

Thought you guys might be interested in them. Working on eventually getting them into dashboards on the site you can look at whenever you want but for now I’ll just post them periodically.

Point Distribution:

I’ll just start with my favorite. This one is showing point probability distributions for each team:

You can see some of the teams that haven’t really left their comfort zone (AFB, DMPS, PHSH) and some teams with a ton of variance (NIBB, ATOM, and my fave the two humped TGIF).

Point Difference:

For each team I calculated the z score based on team averages. You can pretty much just see how far from the average score your team is.

Points by Position:

Still working on cleaning this one up but this is similar to the chart I posted last week but it’s average points for that position not slot. Eventually going to get this one cleaned up so it displays rank or average points on the bar to make it a little more readable.

Team Tiers:

One of the staples from last year, this one just maps out each teams wins and point average with a bonus color coding of tiers. 4 tiers do a pretty good job of separating the teams right now but I usually fluctuate between 3-5 tiers, whatever looks like it fits better.

PWR Mailbag

Do Martin and Robert have any obvious holes.

It involves pulling up our bootstraps, oiling up a hooker and then he beats you in my line up. -Fluffy

Commish, are you that you are right old friend... oh, you are going fall out of the show.

Why does Austin side with the theme of 2016 being fucking bonkers, the Atoms will win and find themselves in the league, yet we sit idly by while the Austin's of the playoffs right now?

Some babies were dropped on their face and who's in the starting lineup? AKA Martin insurance.

Justin, Still willing to trade with? Not just this season, it feels like it does in Magic the Gathering.

Cat in the league ruin the competitivness of the podcast, people tell me what they ate for dinner?

Last year everyone was mad at Martin for taking all the prize money. It's a battle of sea creatures, what can it mean.

Now that we've had a gun with two bullets and I quote, ""Bunnies fucking suck they can suck it have fun losing you loser.

want to hear a joke? Shittysauruses are 5-3, and they are so tremendous, and we will remeber it for the best team, just that they might not win in this Chili’s tonight.

Hi guys, I enjoy being liked. I have a solid team.

There are about 37 trillion cells working together in your Pumaskull. -Chris

Would our league be better if we had a reversal of fortune, maybe I lost myself somewhere along the way.

Week 4 Wrap-Up – 2018

Another wild week in the books. This week had less close match-ups than the previous weeks, and featured the biggest blowout of the season (100 points!). It also had our two highest scores of the season (184.5 and 181.6 points), and our two lowest of the season (84.3 and 94.3 points). A lot of teams ended up in the middle and the average score for the season continues to hover around 141 points. The average winning score this season? 154.5. The average losing scoring? 126.9.

There were a lot of bounce back teams this week. Surfers, Pumaskulls, and Nibblonians all took a big step from their average week 3 performances. Others teams like TGIF and Smoke came crashing back to earth. Shenanihads would have beat four teams this week, bringing their wins agains the field for the season up to 5-39. Giant Octopus on the other hand has recorded back to back high scores and has a 40-4 against the field. The system is now calling The Northern Pikes the power division, with 3 teams breaking the 600 point total. They also have the only teams who haven’t broke the 500 point total so the division seems a little polar. The Mayo boys however, have a pretty decent average amongst all the teams, although Mega Shark took a commanding lead this week with their 181.6 point performance.

This week we saw a huge gap in QB power, the Shenanihads scoring ZERO and the Nibblonians scoring 39 points. Defensive ends scored big this week with an average of 17.6 points, while cornerbacks in the league only scored 4.5. Five cornerbacks have been started this season with an average of 5.18 points, so beware when chasing CB points. Some teams are killing it with their drafted players – Shittysauruses have scored 573 out of their 614 total points from players out of the draft – while injury struck teams like the Boomers have barely scored 50% of their points out of drafted players. The Boomers have more than made up for this in free agency, where they’ve scored 200 points out of players from the waiver wire.

 

Weekly Awards

 

Top Players

 

Power Field Rankings

ALL SEASON Change Record Average
THIS WEEK Change Record Score
 

Power Division

 

Division Ranks

TNP Change Record PF PA
PMBC Change Record PF PA

Matchup of the Week – Week 4

While both of these teams have scored similar point totals over the season, the results couldn’t be any different. Pumaskulls are scuffling after losing the first three games of the season while posting lower and lower point totals, while smoke bounced back from a lucky first week and is now 3-0. A loss here for smoke could mean dropping as far as third in the division if Mega Shark and TGIF win, while Pumaskulls still have to cover a lot of ground to get back in the mix.

Projections favor smoke 60 to 40 but the player projections give a slight edge to Pumaskulls thanks to his trio of elite wide receivers. Smoke has the advantage at quarterback, where they’ve averaged 27 pts/wk to Pumaskulls 17. Pumaskulls have the higher projeceted tight end, but both teams have struggled to get production out of the slot, averaging 3.37 pts/wk for Pumaskulls, and 6 pts/week for smoke). For the first time this season, our MotW will start and end on Sunday. Pumaskulls have the bulk of their players playing in the early games, and the day will wrap-up with JuJu vs Alex Collins.

Final Prediction:

wholelottasmoke: 144

Dreadmetal Pumaskulls: 142

Who do you think will win? Make sure to leave a comment and vote on the game.

Week 3 Wrap-Up – 2018

Every week I’m surprised at how many close games we have. This week there’s one game that I’m still not comfortable calling between the Surfers and the Boomers. Going to bed Sunday night, the Surfers held a fractional lead, but by Monday morning that lead had swapped. I’m guess some stat corrections on Thursday will cause score to swing even further, but who knows in what way.

Divisions are beginning to take form, although its anyone’s guess how long they stay like this. Former top teams like Surfers, Shittysauruses, and Pumaskulls are all winless, while newcomer wholelottasmoke is sitting atop the Pacific Mayo Boy Conference uncontested. Luck has definitely played a roll even this early in the season with teams like wholelottasmoke and Atoms over-performing  relative to the league, while Pumaskulls find themselves 0-3 despite a 51.5% win percentage against the field. Other teams like the Shenanihads will need to look inward to find the answer to their woes – they’re the only team to not score more than 120 points this season. Their top score of 117 points is less than 9 teams worst score.

Quarterback scoring is surging: this week the average quarter back score was 24 points. It seems like people are finding their footing in IDP: scores have increased in the DP slot every week. Position diversity has increased as well. Week 2 saw 31 linebackers starting, but week 3 saw 25 linebackers, 2 cornerbacks, 3 defensive ends, 1 defensive tackle, and 5 safeties. Mega Shark has cashed in on the position more than any other team – Darius Leonard has not only put up the top two defensive scores of the year, but is also the top scoring free agent acquisition.

 

Weekly Awards

 

Top Players

 

Power Field Rankings

ALL SEASON Change Record Average
THIS WEEK Change Record Score
 

Power Division

 

Division Ranks

TNP Change Record PF PA
PMBC Change Record PF PA

The Worst Game

I was looking at scoring over Bo Knows history and the highest scoring lost really caught my eye. After that I decided to look at the lowest scoring win of all time and I was blown away. Just check out the ineptitude of these teams:

This was from our first season when scores were a lot lower, but even then the average score was about 91 points. Jay Cutler provided a very Cutler-esque total of negative three points, and the Atoms got zero points from 3 players. Almost half of his points came from one player, Maurice Jones-Drew. TGIF got a better all-around performance from his players, but still had six players score less than five points.

Podcast 2018 – Week 2

This week we’re watching TNF while catching up on all the madness from week two. Giant Octo’s giant defeat, the IDP trade wave, power rankings, an exciting business opportunity, and finally the new hotline! It was a lot to fit in but we finally recorded an episode in under 1.5 hours.

Matchup of the Week – Week 2

We’re headed into Week 2 and this week’s MotW features two of the higher scoring teams from The Northern Pikes duking it out for potential division control. Giant Octopus boats an impressive 7-2 record against the Bunnies although Bunnies have won the last 2 out of 3. Both teams are coming off of a strong week 1 finish, although the teams couldn’t have scored any differently. Giant Octopus own the top two scoring running backs, while Bunnies own two of the top ten receivers.

The projection systems are looking at a potential blowout, although everyone knows that nothing in fantasy is a sure thing. As mentioned before, Giant Octopus will be looking to their trio of running backs to do the bulk of the damage, while Bunnies will lean heavily on their wide receiving core. Both teams will look for more defensive points than their weak week one performance. Giant Octopus will get in the action early on Thursday night with AJ Green and CJ Mosley. The Bunnies will hope to rack up their points in the 10AM slot where they have 6-7 players going, and both teams will have to potentially wait till Monday night when Tyler Lockett and Danny Trevathan duke it out.

Final Prediction:

Giant Octopus: 166

The Fluffy Bunnies: 132

Who do you think will win? Make sure to leave a comment and vote on the game.

Podcast 2018 – Week 1

Week one is down and the dust is settled. Settle in and listen as we go over IDP, the Waiver Wire, and any draft regrets. Check out our new section where we go over interesting NFL news. Finally, stick around for the staples, MotW, Power Rankings, and the Mailbag.

Make sure to subscribe at: https://ec2-3-101-17-211.us-west-1.compute.amazonaws.com/feed/podcast/

Matchup of the Week – Week 1

Our two Bo Bowl contenders kick of the 2018 season with a rematch. The last time these two teams met, the Surfers had edged out a 12 point victory backed by a 44.6 point performance from Todd Gurley. This was the 2nd highest score for a player during the season. Dion Lewis did what he could with a 31.5 point performance of his own, but it wasn’t enough. Including the Bo Bowl loss, the Nibblonians are 0-3 against the Surfers. Now’s their chance to get that sweet sweet revenge.

Because the season hasn’t started, I’m showing projections for the players for this week instead of historical averages from each slot:

The two teams are built a little different from each other with the focus of the offense around David Johnson vs Antonio Brown. While Surfers have the edge at running back, Nibblonians hold an advantage at almost every other position including a sizable gap between Jordan Reed and Jared Cook. We’ll kick things off with off with Deion Jones on Thursday night, and the matchup will continue all the way through Monday night. Surfers will have to hope they’ve built up enough of a lead that Jared Cook (lol) can hold off the Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp stack. Either way, the projections are too close to call and it’s really anyone’s game.

Final Prediction:

The Nibblonians: 138

Butthole Surfers: 136

Who do you think will win? Make sure to leave a comment and vote on the game.