So this week I made an update to the clustering script and had it include playoff odds as well. It’s grouping the teams a little bit better now based on how strong they’ve performed so well, and what their playoff chances look like. I’m also including odds of hitting the #1/2 seed, but it’s just napkin math because I haven’t modified the PLAYOFF MACHINE to count stuff like that yet.
The Top Dogs: These teams are top in points, atop their division, and locked for playoffs.
- Dreadmetal Pumaskulls (100%) (67% chance for #1, 33% for #2)
- Butthole Surfers (100%*) (33% chance for #1 seed, 61% chance for #2, 6% chance no bye)
Life, uh, finds a way: The Bunnies stand alone in this tier. Although they have a good shot to make playoffs and they’re most likely team to boot Surfers from the #2 seed, they also could just as easily drop to the #7 seed after week 11. Every 6-5 team has a chance to win this week and the Bunnies are facing the Nibblonians, another 6-5 team. The loss would immediately drop them to the bottom of the tie-breaker.
- Fluffy Bunnies (90.74%) (0.1% chance for #1, 6% chance for #2 seed)
The Back Half: Four teams fighting for three spots. Although the Shittysauruses have the highest point total out of this group they also face Surfers in week 11, severely damping their playoff hopes. Like I mentioned above though, if Nibblinians beat Bunnies and the rest of the teams win, Bunnies will quickly be at the bottom of this pile. Everyone in this tier has a <1% chance at hitting the #2 seed.
- Philadelphia Shenanihads (93.37%)
- Giant Octopus (84.20%)
- The Nibblonians (66.76%)
- Shelbyville Shittysauruses (63.36%)
Toilet Bowl Bound: The window is shrinking for these teams, and while they’re not all technically eliminated it’s a long shot for them to make playoffs. Time to prep for not going to the Toilet Bowl.
- Nellis AFB Boomers (1.29%)
- Robot Unicorn (0.28%)
- TGIF (0.001%)
- Springfield Atoms (0.001%)
- Mega Shark (Eliminated)
*Brett wanted everyone to know that Surfers are only a practical lock for playoffs, not a mathematical lock. In the scenario that every team below outscores them by 60-90 points a week and they lose the last two games, they will be eliminated from playoffs.
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